Quote of the Week
“Whoever corrects a mocker invites insults; whoever rebukes the wicked incurs abuse. Do not rebuke mockers or they will hate you; rebuke the wise and they will love you. Instruct the wise and they will be wiser still; teach the righteous and they will add to their learning.”
Manufacturing Time
In The Thirty Second Mind, I wrote about how our modern society discourages deep concentration. Humans crave constant feedback and electronic devices deliver a constant stream of stimuli. Most people seem to have difficulty spending more than a few minutes without looking at their phones. As we move into the age of augmented reality with devices like Apple’s Vision Pro, the problem is likely to only get worse.
Many early reviews of Vision Pro describe how the real world looks flat and dull compared to what users see through those bulky goggles. If the experience is addictive for adults, I can only imagine what it will be like for children.
The result of constant feedback and context switching is that time flies by, but not in a good way. When time passes quickly because we are in a flow state, much can be accomplished. But when we flit from screen to screen constantly, nothing worthwhile can possibly be accomplished. This is the default state for millions of people today.
Over the past year, I have often taken a “digital detox” on Sundays. In my case, this involves turning off all of my devices except for my Apple Watch which is set to only accept texts and calls from key personal contacts. The result is that Sundays seem to be extended, almost as if I have manufactured more hours in the day. I have far more time to think and read. Stress is almost entirely absent. Time only speeds up in good ways when I am occupied in an immersive activity like reading or exercising.
If committing to a full day away from electronics seems too daunting, even a few hours produces a similar effect. I suspect that many people do not even recall a time when they were disconnected more than momentarily. This is what real life used to be like before the proliferation of smartphones. What if some important event occurs during a digital detox? It depends on how you define “important”. In my case, I can still be reached by key personal contacts so I am not totally cut off from the world.
Is the Bible a Great Book? by The Rational Walk, February 3, 2024. “The Bible is full of supernatural elements that require a degree of faith to believe in. The trap that many secular people fall into is that they discount the value of the Bible, both in terms of providing historical details and in terms of better understanding the human condition, because of its supernatural elements. Since the majority of people in the world believe in a higher power, secular people should read the Bible to gain a better understanding of humanity.”
Articles
The Apple Vision Pro by Ben Thompson, February 6, 2024. The tone of this lengthy review is positive when it comes to media consumption, but Ben Thompson expresses disappointment about the limitations of Vision Pro as a productivity device. I also found his comments regarding “guest mode” concerning. It is very cumbersome for owners of a Vision Pro to lend it to friends or family members. A $3,500 device is a hard sell. Selling multiple $3,500 devices to a family could prove to be even more of a challenge. I plan to sign up for a Vision Pro demo at an Apple Store soon. (Stratechery)
Why Tim Cook Is Going All In on the Apple Vision Pro by Nick Bilton, February 1, 2024. “What we do is we get really excited about something and then we start pulling the string and see where it takes us,” Cook told me. “And yes, we’ve got things on the road maps and so forth, and yes, we have a definitive point of view. But a lot of it is also the exploration and figuring out.” He concluded, “Sometimes the dots connect. And they lead you to some place that you didn’t expect.” (Vanity Fair)
Piecing Together Berkshire Hathaway’s 1986 Annual Meeting by Kingswell, February 6, 2024. We have videos of Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings going back to 1994 which leaves a lot of ground for writers to dig into what took place in Omaha when Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger were far less famous. This is a good summary of the publicly available information about the 1986 meeting. While the specifics change, the general themes they speak about are timeless. (Kingswell)
Reporters Who Ask Tough Questions at Fed Press Conferences Have a Habit of Being Disappeared from the Room by Pam and Russ Martens, February 6, 2024. If it seems like very few hard questions are ever asked at Fed press conferences, this is not a figment of your imagination. Much coverage of the Fed in recent years resembles propaganda rather than investigative journalism. This article documents examples of the rare reporters who have asked hard questions and suffered the consequences of losing access. Fed reporting is “access journalism” at its worst. (Wall Street on Parade)
Wendy’s: Where’s The Beef? by Matt Franz, February 3, 2024. This is a detailed, well written write-up that covers the business model of Wendy’s. It is also worth reading for those interested in the fast food industry in general. (Eagle Point Capital)
Should Amazon Be Responsible for Everything It Sells and Ships? by Dana Mattioli and Khadeeja Safdar, February 1, 2024. Over 60% of sales on Amazon.com are by outside vendors known as third-party sellers. It is not always transparent when one is buying from a third-party rather than Amazon. I have had several bad experiences recently, one of which involved a grossly unsafe product for handicapped people sold by a third-party seller in China. Amazon should get ahead of the inevitable regulatory pressure and voluntarily put in place better internal controls as soon as possible. (WSJ)
Ford’s Controversial 1915 Profit-Share Plan by Jamie Catherwood, February 7, 2024. Everyone knows about Henry Ford $5 wage which was very high compensation in the early twentieth century. Fewer people know about the many strings attached to the profit-sharing component of this plan. Ford felt that he had a duty to promote the moral character of his workers and put in place intrusive policies that would never be acceptable today. This article provides the cringeworthy details! (Investor Amnesia)
- Book Review of Henry Ford’s Life and Work, May 15, 2023. “Henry Ford … had a paternalistic side. He conducted investigations into the home life of employees and sought to observe whether they lived in morally upstanding ways. He would employ single women and married women whose husbands were unable to work, but he refused to hire married women who had working husbands.” (The Rational Walk)
How To Afford a House These Days by Mr. Money Mustache, February 3, 2024. One of the first websites devoted to early retirement explores which metro areas provide the best value for the money in today’s inflated market. For those willing and able to relocate, certain areas of the country still provide solid value. (Mr. Money Mustache)
My Rule of the 6 Spheres by Ted Gioia, February 2, 2024. “Early in life, I operated without a coherent worldview. That led me into all sorts of problems. It’s like driving without a map—or an app, I guess I should say nowadays. You travel, you expend energy, but never make progress. At a later date, I will write about other aspects of my worldview (for example, as a scholar and writer). But today I want to share the personal side of my worldview, and how it shapes my private life. I call this my rule of the six spheres.” (The Honest Broker)
You’re never too old to start exercising – just ask a 93-year-old rowing champion by Peter Attia, February 3, 2024. “Twenty years ago, Richard Morgan, a then-73-year-old retiree from County Cork, Ireland, attended one of his grandson’s college rowing practices. Though Morgan hadn’t devoted any attention to physical activity in his life up to that point, the coach offered to let him use one of the machines, and he accepted. Fast-forward to present day, and 93-year-old Morgan is a four-time world champion in indoor rowing, most recently winning the 2022 title in the 90-94 age division. (Peter Attia MD)
Podcasts
The Pros and Cons of Being Public with Andrew Walker, February 2, 2024. 1 hour, 2 minutes. “Andrew Walker, friend of the pod, returns to discuss some of his reflections following the Spirit merger ruling going against him. Bill pinged Andrew following the ruling and asked whether he would want to come back on the podcast to discuss the pros and cons of publicly liking a stock idea that does not work out.” (The Business Brew)
- Sharing Ideas? Beware of Negative Lollapalooza Effects, March 16, 2017. I’m reminded of an article about sharing ideas that I wrote in 2017 in which I share a couple of personal examples. In my opinion, the psychological risks are significant. “When we publicly discuss ideas, we should be aware of the fact that we are most certainly opening ourselves up to the negative effects of several psychological tendencies. These tendencies work against us in many ways and, to make matters worse, we are usually unaware of the fact that we are affected.” (The Rational Walk)
Napoleon’s Maxims and Strategy, February 5, 2024. 1 hour. One of the things I like about David Senra’s podcast is how he draws business lessons from historical events that had nothing to do with business or investing. Napoleon’s leadership style and tactics can be applied to lessons for entrepreneurs and executives. (Founders Podcast)
Arthur J. Gallagher: Insurance Broking, February 7, 2024. 47 minutes. Transcript. “AJG is one of the largest insurance brokerages by revenue, exceeding $10 billion, competing with the likes of Marsh & McLennan, Aon and Willis Towers Watson. During this conversation, we discussed the company’s successful acquisition and integration strategy, the strength of the insurance brokerage industry and how the shifting industry dynamics will impact the durability of their competitive advantage.” (Business Breakdowns)
The New Financial Capitalists: KKR and the Creation of Corporate Value, February 6, 2024. 44 minutes. Video. Geoff Gannon and Andrew Kuhn discuss a book about KKR and leveraged buyouts that was first published in 1998. (Focused Compounding)
Katalin Karikó, February 2, 2024. “The list of obstacles that Kati Karikó faced to become a scientist, to make any meaningful discovery, to prevail over certain scientists and administrators who oppressed her, unable to obtain grants, her seminal paper rejected by all of the top-tier journals, demoted and dismissed, but ultimately to be awarded the 2023 Nobel Prize with Drew Weissman, is a story for the ages.” (Ground Truths)
- Breaking Through: My Life in Science Katalin Karikó’s autobiography was discussed in some detail during the podcast. I look forward to reading it.
- Book Review of A Shot to Save the World, March 24, 2022. “Katalin Karikó arrived in the United States in 1985, a thirty year old immigrant from Hungary who knew hardly any English. She smuggled $1,200, her family’s entire savings, by carving a hole into the stomach of her two-year-old daughter’s teddy bear, which was enough concealment to evade the communist-era restrictions that prohibited citizens from leaving the country with hard currency.” (The Rational Walk)
Ten Things about John Randolph of Roanoke, February 6, 2024. 51 minutes. “John Randolph was a brilliant and flamboyant man, hairless with the voice of a soprano and locked physically in a pre-pubescent state. Yet he was a brilliant orator, an outstanding Congressional floor manager, with a wicked tongue and a vituperative spirit. Randolph was a radical Republican who broke with President Jefferson when the third President behaved like a pragmatist rather than an ideologue.” (Listening to America/Thomas Jefferson Hour)
Winter Landscape
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