Friday, January 15, 2021Volume 2, Issue 3 “You’re looking for a mispriced gamble. That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.” — Charlie Munger Something of Value by Howard Marks,
Google’s Inflation Measure May Keep Government Statistics Honest
According to the Financial Times, Google is planning to construct a price index that could eventually serve as an alternative to official government statistics. While the Google Price Index (GPI) is still a work in progress and only tracks web-traded goods, the potential for expansion into other sectors of the economy could provide a more complete picture of inflation in the future. If fully developed, the GPI may keep government statistics honest in periods of higher inflation.
Buffett Sees Broad Based Economic Recovery Ahead
Warren Buffett is not buying into projections of an imminent “double dip” recession and sees a broad based economic recovery ahead. Berkshire Hathaway’s diverse collection of operating companies gives Mr. Buffett a unique view into the health of the overall economy and he has frequently commented on overall economic conditions over the past few years. Read this article for more details.
Fairfax Financial Bets on Deflation Thesis
Prem Watsa, Chairman and CEO of Fairfax Financial, has made a bold bet on falling prices over the next decade according to an article in The Wall Street Journal. Fairfax Financial is an insurance company based in Canada which many have compared to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway due to Mr. Watsa’s impressive long term track record. Fairfax posted very strong results in 2007 and 2008 due to large gains in equity hedges and credit default swaps that were taken based on Mr. Watsa’s correct reading of the economy ahead of the Great Recession. Read this article for more details.
Kansas City Fed President Hoenig: Act Now to Address Fiscal Situation
Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas M. Hoenig has been a voice in the wilderness for some time. Mr. Hoenig was the only dissenter of the policy action at the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee because he believes that economic and financial conditions no longer warrant the Federal Reserve’s commitment to keep the federal funds rate at “exceptionally low” levels for an extended period of time. Last year, Mr. Hoenig gave a speech outlining alternatives to the “too big to fail” doctrine that has become conventional wisdom in Washington. Read this article for Mr. Hoenig’s current views and a link to a recent speech.